The labour market is undergoing profound changes due to long-term transformation processes and more short-term events such as economic crises. Starting from a broad, macroeconomic perspective, the IAB examines key aspects such as ‘search and matching’ processes in the labour market and the role of reforms, as well as the impact on the labour market of institutional regulations, the economic situation, technological change, decarbonisation, trade policy, geopolitical developments and population trends. Occupations and qualifications play an important role when it comes to analysing and forecasting labour supply and demand. Primary sources of data are the IAB job vacancy survey (IAB-Stellenerhebung) and the IAB working time measurement concept (IAB-Arbeitszeitrechnung), as well as macroeconomic data such as the national accounts. Big data is also analysed, i.e. very large volumes of – sometimes rapidly changing – structured and unstructured data that is generated online. The methodology underpinning the IAB’s micro-simulation model and short and long-term forecast models is constantly being refined.
In view of challenges such as an ageing society, decarbonisation and digitalisation that come at a time of shortages in the labour market, the focus area’s research topics in 2026 will include not only ways of ensuring a sufficient supply of workers but also transformation. On the labour demand side, the ongoing analysis of demand for workers will be supported by monitoring based on the IAB job vacancy survey. Scenarios and survey results will be analysed in order to examine changes in the demand for workers due to the ageing population or as a result of the increased use of artificial intelligence (AI).
The methods used to produce forecasts on the labour supply side will be refined in order to better estimate anticipated trends in the supply of labour and the potential means of mitigating any mismatch. The updating of the IAB working time measurement concept based on gender and age groups should provide further insight into any such potential, as will the development of a gender equality barometer. There will also be research into how technological and structural change affects unemployment and how matching in the labour market can be improved through the use of AI tools. International experience with short-time working as a means of making employment more secure will also be examined. When it comes to safeguarding the supply of labour, it is important to consider how legislation affects the relationship between welfare benefits and the supply of labour. In particular, the spotlight will be on possible reforms to the system of basic income support or to other income-based welfare benefits.
The focus area will examine the influence of migration on the size and structure of the working-age population and how controlling labour migration can help to deal with shortages in the labour market. It will also look at what is needed for migrants to successfully integrate into the labour market and what the knock-on effects are for the labour market, the welfare state and the wider economy. In addition, it will analyse whether migrants returning home or moving on to other countries exacerbates shortages in the labour market.
Activities
Departments
- Research Department Labour Market Processes and Institutions
- Research Group Basic Income Support and the Labour Market
- Research Department Migration and International Labour Studies
- Research Department Forecasts and Macroeconomic Analyses
