The labour market is undergoing profound changes due to long-term transformation processes and more short-term events such as economic crises. Starting from a broad, macroeconomic perspective, the IAB examines key aspects such as ‘search and matching’ processes in the labour market, the impact of institutional regulations on the labour market, and the role of reforms, the economic situation, technological change, decarbonisation, trade and population trends. Occupations and qualifications play an important role when it comes to analysing and forecasting labour supply and demand. Primary sources of data are the IAB job vacancy survey (IAB-Stellenerhebung), the sample of integrated welfare benefit biographies (Stichprobe Integrierte Grundsicherungsbiografien) and the IAB working time measurement concept (IAB-Arbeitszeitrechnung), as well as macroeconomic data such as the national accounts. Big data is also analysed, i.e. very large volumes of – sometimes rapidly changing – structured and unstructured data that is generated online. The methodology underpinning the IAB’s micro-simulation model and short and long-term forecast models is constantly being refined.
In view of challenges such as an ageing society, decarbonisation and digitalisation that come at a time of shortages in the labour market, the focus area’s research topics in 2025 will include not only ways of ensuring a sufficient supply of workers but also transformation. On the labour demand side, the ongoing analysis of demand for workers will be supported by monitoring based on the IAB job vacancy survey. Scenarios and survey results will be analysed in order to examine areas in which new demand for workers is emerging, for example in the healthcare sector due to the ageing population, or as a result of the increased use of hydrogen technologies and generative artificial intelligence (AI).
The methods used to produce forecasts on the labour supply side will be refined in order to better estimate anticipated trends in the supply of labour and the potential means of mitigating any mismatch. There will also be research into mismatches in the labour market and into how matching can be improved by deploying AI methods. Pre-retirement part-time employment is one of the areas to be examined in the context of the working time measurement concept. When it comes to safeguarding the supply of labour, it is important to consider how legislation affects the relationship between welfare benefits and the supply of labour. In particular, the spotlight will be on new regulations related to the introduction of a basic child benefit scheme and supplementary income options for recipients of citizen’s benefit (Bürgergeld).
Migration affects both the supply of labour and the labour market in various ways too. In this context, the focus area will examine the influence of migration on the size and structure of the working-age population and how controlling labour migration can help to deal with shortages in the labour market. The focus area will also analyse whether migrants returning home or moving on to other countries exacerbates shortages in the labour market. In addition, it will look at what is needed for migrants to successfully integrate into the labour market and what the knock-on effects are for the labour market, the welfare state and the wider economy.
Activities
Departments
- Research Department Labour Market Processes and Institutions
- Research Group Basic Income Support and the Labour Market
- Research Department Migration and International Labour Studies
- Research Department Forecasts and Macroeconomic Analyses
