Long-term developments of supply and demand in the labour market - occupational field projections for social and health-care professions up to 2030

Abstract

"The demographic development will have a strong effect on the labour market in the coming decades. The health and care sectors in particular will have to struggle with massive bottlenecks in qualified personnel. While changed behaviour with regard to education and increased entries to university mean that the academic medical professions are enjoying a growth in intakes, at the middle level of qualifications this occupational field is in competition with technical occupations than tend to offer higher income opportunities. In turn, these technical training professions will suffer from an increased lack of young workers as they will lose many young people with a leaning towards technical professions to academic paths of qualification. Even if, up to now, the intrinsic motivation of performing an activity in the heath and care sector has helped them to ignore the comparatively poor working and income conditions, in the long run this occupational field will only be able to encourage young people to adopt a profession in this area of activity in competition with middle-level technical professions if wages are increased and working conditions improved." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku)

Cite article

Helmrich, R. & Zika, G. (2017): Langfristige Entwicklung von Angebot und Bedarf auf dem Arbeitsmarkt - Berufsfeldprojektionen für soziale und Gesundheitsberufe bis 2030. In: E. Schlemmer, A. Lange & L. Kuld (Hrsg.) (2017): Handbuch Jugend im demografischen Wandel : Konsequenzen für Familie, Bildung und Arbeit, p. 226-242.