Occupation and qualifications in the future : BIBB-IAB model calculations on the developments in occupational fields and qualifications up to 2025

Abstract

The study centres on the future requirement of labour in certain occupational fields as well as on a projection of the corresponding supply. Here the respective labour requirement is compared to the corresponding labour supply for four levels of qualification, based on the ISCED classification and at the level of 12 main occupational fields. It becomes apparent that especially with skilled workers with an average level of qualification, there is the threat of a major bottleneck because an almost constant requirement for employees up to 2025 is juxtaposed with an up to 2015 initially light and then rapid decrease in the number of economically active persons with the corresponding qualifications. In addition, as of 2020, an increasing number of skilled workers will be ceasing to be economically active. In this way, there could be a deficit by 2025 of roughly 1.8 million economically active persons. As far as the working population without occupational qualifications is concerned, the requirement will drop by 2025 - as will the supply - according to BIBB and IAB projections. Nonetheless, it will be increasingly more difficult for this, in general, shrinking group to find employment. The bottlenecks at the level of occupational fields will become apparent even earlier and in a more sustained way. Health care and social professions will be affected, but also legal, management and economics professions. Further bottlenecks are forecast for MINT professions (maths, computer science, natural sciences, technology). There will also be a shortage of workers, according to the projections, for example in the transport, storage, haulage and security guard sectors as well as in gastronomy, although these jobs are normally filled with non-specialized workers. (IAB)

Cite article

Helmrich, R. & Zika, G. (2010): Beruf und Qualifikation in der Zukunft. BIBB-IAB-Modellrechnungen zu den Entwicklungen in Berufsfeldern und Qualifikationen bis 2025. In: R. Helmrich & G. Zika (Hrsg.) (2010): Beruf und Qualifikation in der Zukunft : BIBB-IAB-Modellrechnungen zu den Entwicklungen in Berufsfeldern und Qualifikationen bis 2025, p. 13-62.