A shock with an announcement: Cause and impacts of the future requirement of skilled labour

Abstract

The article addresses the topic of the effects of demographic change on the development of the labour force potential. The author assumes that this could shrink by a third by 2050. He expects, 'that the basic structure of the labour market will change from being an employer market to an employee market'. The shortage of skilled workers will lead to higher wages, and establishments will have to make more of an effort to find and retain qualified personnel. The author predicts that the economic problems engendered by demographic change are not of a permanent nature: 'In the long run, the population and the economy will find a new balance.' A positive aspect of demographic change is the increasing labour market opportunities for the long-term unemployed (if they have the corresponding qualifications) and women. By applying measures to increase the participation of women and older persons in gainful employment and through immigration, the drop in the labour force potential could be halved by 2050, the author concludes.

Cite article

Möller, J. (2012): Ein Schock mit Ansage: Ursache und Auswirkungen des zukünftigen Fachkräftebedarfs. In: Print+Media Kompass.