The IAB/INFORGE model : a sectoral and macroeconomic projection and simulation model for forecasting the long-term demand for labour

Abstract

"Politics, as the task of actively constructing the future, are dependent upon the scientifically reasoned, that is rationally substantiated, and replicable forecast of future developments. For this reason the projection of future demands for labour undertaken by IAB is based on a well-founded estimation and evaluation of future national and international dynamics in the economic sphere and is very clearly differentiated according to industrial branches. In order to take both national and international macroeconomic cyclic relationships in account, future-orientated analyses are compiled on the basis of empirically substantiated macroeconomic models of projection and simulation.<br> The volume contains detailed documentation of the macroeconomic model used at IAB for the projection of the demand for labour, IAB/INFORGE (INterindustry FORecasting GErmany). Here it is the case of a macroeconomic model for the Federal Republic of Germany subdivided according to sectors with explicit modelling of the labour market. The behaviour of private establishments, households and the public sector are estimated econometrically. Developments in the global economy as well as the relationship of Germany to the global economy are illustrated via the GINFORS (Global Interindustry Forecasting System) model. It links the economically important countries by way of their trade flows and can thus capture the entire global economy. The evaluation of the two parts of the model takes place simultaneously. The specific strength of the models lies in their analysis, explanation and forecast of structural change." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Ahlert, G., Distelkamp, M., Lutz, C., Meyer, B., Mönnig, A. & Wolter, M., Schnur, P. & Zika, G. (eds.) Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg (2009): Das IAB/INFORGE-Modell. Ein sektorales makroökonometrisches Projektions- und Simulationsmodell zur Vorausschätzung des längerfristigen Arbeitskräftebedarfs. (IAB-Bibliothek 318), Bielefeld: Bertelsmann, 176 p. DOI:10.3278/300664w