Wie wird sich der Arbeitsmarkt langfristig entwickeln?

Abstract

"In this statement, IAB is commenting on the meaningfulness of prognoses as regards a possible future shortage of skilled labour. First, the prognosis and simulation models for the labour market currently used are presented and their validity in respect to the forecast period discussed. In the second part of the statement, this discussion is enlarged and the opportunities and risks of prognoses considered.<br> After that, the focus is directed towards the current topic of skilled labour requirements. The first thing to be examined is the extent to which the currently circulating prognoses of a shortage of skilled labour can be accorded credibility. Here it becomes apparent that the assumptions presented in advance and the models used can be assigned a decisive role. In addition, the measured variables that are currently being used to quantify a potential shortage of skilled labour in the short term are discussed. Here it becomes apparent that the normal measured variables such as (completed) vacancy times are problematic in respect to inferences about shortages of skilled labour, as changes in this measured variable can have many causes which are independent of shortages.<br> Finally, educational choice and the so-called 'pork cycles' on the labour market, which may result from this, are looked at." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Brunow, S., Garloff, A., Wapler, R. & Zika, G. (2012): Wie wird sich der Arbeitsmarkt langfristig entwickeln? Methoden und Validitäten von Prognosen zur Vorhersage von Fachkräfteangebot und -bedarf. Schriftliche Anhörung der Fachkräftekommission Hessen der hessischen Landesregierung. (IAB-Stellungnahme 01/2012), Nürnberg, 17 p.