Weniger Arbeitskraft, weniger Wachstum

Abstract

"This report presents the results of the eighth wave of the Qualification and Occupation Projections (QuBe project), which are being conducted under the joint leadership of the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) in cooperation with the Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS). The results of the baseline projection provide an overview of the development of the German labour market up to the year 2040 if previous trends and behaviours are maintained. Updating the data reveals that the economy and the labour market have come to terms with general shortages. The number of people without a vocational qualification and with a university degree (master‘s, diploma and doctorate) is increasing; at the same time, there are fewer people with a vocational qualification, advanced training or a bachelor‘s degree. Both the labour force and the number of people in employment will decline. Exports are weakening due to the changed geopolitical situation. The number of self-employed people will also fall. As the self-employed generally work more hours, the number of hours worked per person will fall disproportionately. The labour market therefore remains tight. Stimulus is needed for both the demand and supply of labour if economic development is to break out of this trend." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Maier, T., Kalinowski, M., Schur, A., Zika, G., Schneemann, C., Mönnig, A. & Wolter, M. (2024): Weniger Arbeitskraft, weniger Wachstum. Ergebnisse der achten Welle der BIBB-IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektionen bis zum Jahr 2040. (BIBB-Report 2024,01), Leverkusen: Verlag Barbara Budrich, 20 p.