Long-term effects of skill-specific migration flows on labour supply and economic development

Abstract

"Due to the ageing of society, the labour force will decline by around 1.8 million people between 2020 and 2040. This is shown by the QuBe baseline projection, which assumes average annual migration gains of around 240,000 persons. In this paper, we demonstrate on the basis of two alternative scenarios what a slight increase in immigration („pull scenario“) or reduction in emigration („stay scenario“) of about 50,000 persons each year would mean compared to the baseline projection from 2022 onwards. Both migration scenarios have a positive effect on the supply of skilled labour and economic development. However, it becomes clear that an increase in the probability of staying has a more immediate and stronger effect on population development and the economy, as only every second person migrating to Germany stays in Germany in the long term. It is therefore worthwhile to increase the likelihood of foreign skilled workers remaining in Germany, e. g. through the recognition of foreign professional qualifications. Above all, the supply of skilled workers at the middle qualification level would benefit from this." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Maier, T., Kalinowski, M., Böse, C., Schmitz, N., Mönnig, A. & Zika, G. (2021): Should I stay or should I go? Langfristige Auswirkungen von qualifikationsspezifischen Wanderungsströmen auf Arbeitsangebot und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung. (BIBB-Report 2021,01), Leverkusen, 16 p.