Abstract

The project is positioned in the thematic area "Social Dimension of Climate Policy". It focuses on the effects of ecological transition on the demand for labor, the consequences for workers and social policy, as well as adaptation processes and solutions for a socially just climate and environmental policy. The following research questions will be addressed(i) To what extent does the ecological transition change the demand for labor at the occupational, firm, sectoral, and regional levels, as well as the skills in demand?(ii) What are the consequences for individual employment histories, in particular for job stability, wage development and occupational mobility, and what are the aggregate consequences for the social system?(iii) Which training programs are suitable to best qualify workers for the ecological transition? To what extent are skills that will be in greater demand in the future covered by current vocational training programs, and what adaptation needs arise?The research project uses a mix of methods. For the analysis of labor demand, job profiles (BERUFENET database of the German Federal Employment Agency, BA) and job advertisements will be used. These textual data will be analyzed using natural language processing (NLP) to determine the extent to which demand profiles are changing as a result of the ecological transformation. Administrative social data will be used to analyze the consequences for individual employment histories. For the analysis of the training market, data from training market statistics and training place data will be used. For the analysis of training needs, the results of the first two research questions will be used to identify strongly affected occupations, sectors, regions, and socio-demographic groups. Subsequently, existing training offers, e.g. of the BA, will be compared with the previous needs analysis and the extent to which training can avoid negative effects on individuals and social systems will be examined. In this step, but also in the other steps of the analysis, the opinion of experts and stakeholders will be sought in order to discuss working hypotheses and results and to develop proposals for solutions.The results should stimulate the scientific discourse and inform the public, politicians and administration. In this way, uncertainties regarding ecological transition will be reduced and an improved information base for decision-making processes will be created for those directly affected and for decision-makers, especially in social policy.