Abstract

The evolutions in the vocational education and training (VET) market show a shortage of applicants and a decline in thenumber of new apprentices. More and more in-company training positions remain unfilled, which may exacerbate existing shortages of skilled workers. Mechanisms behind this may be related to the demographic change or a shift in preferences. For some young individuals pursuing higher education and the better labour market prospects resulting from higher educational qualifications may appear more attractive. Another group might instead seek school-based vocational training or staying in the education system for a shorter period without completing a vocational qualification. Another group of low-skilled school leavers does not pursue vocational training or higher education; this group enters the labour market as formally low-skilled workers.Against this background, there is an ongoing discussion on what determines young individuals’ interest in VET and also how thosewho are generally interested in VET but who remained unsuccessful so far can be supported in entering (dual) training.However, so far, systematic information on access to VET and the dynamics during the transition phase is missing.The aim of this survey is to fill this gap by gaining insights on the decision-making processes during the application andorientation phase of young individuals. We draw a random sample from the universe of individuals who received careercounselling from the Federal Employment Agency (FE) and we follow these individuals throughout their last school year.To draw conclusions about measures suitable to alleviating the problems associated to entry into VET, our survey asksabout educational aspirations, application behaviour and channels of career orientation. Since the degree of success inthe transition phase is heterogenous, we distinguish between students that were considered as ready and thosewho were considered as not ready for training by the counsellor. Further, we distinguish young people by the timing of the career counselling they received.