Abstract

Germany faces a considerable ageing and shrinking of the population. As the size of the population in the working age will become significantly smaller this could result in a considerable slow-down in labour force growth. But most probably there will be some differences between the regional trends. This project focuses on the impact of the demographic change on the regional labour supply. By the example of the Saarland it will be examined, whether it is possible to link the regional population projections of the Federal Statistical Office and those forecasts of the future labour participation, which are estimated by the IAB. Furthermore the projected change of the aggregate labour force should be decomposed by the main factors demography and labour participation. The project should provide labour force trends up to the year 2020. It is planned to extend the estimations for some more regions ( German Länder ).