Forecasting Regional Employment and Unemployment Stocks with Econometric/Time-Series Methods

Project duration: 30.06.2005 to

Abstract

We provide regional forecasts for the number of unemployed and employed (simultaneously to the macro-economic forecasts which are published semi-annually) for the Federal States and labour market districts in Germany. In addition, forecasts for the number of unemployed in the SGB-II and SGB-III systems as well as the number of people capable of working and eligible for benefits are calculated for the Federal States.The forecasts aim to inform the management of the Federal Employment Agency (at the national, regional and local level), but are also for use in ministries, politics in general and other groups involved and interested in the labour market.