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European Labour Market Barometer: at a high level despite dampers

The European Labour Market Barometer fell by 0.4 points to 104.8 points in July. That means the leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) is still at a high level, however, and has achieved the second-highest score in its existence.

“The European public employment services see that the upswing of the labour markets in Europe is still continuing. But the concern regarding the economic effects of a new COVID wave is rising,” reports Enzo Weber, head of the IAB forecast division “Forecast and Macroeconomic Analysis”. The leading indicator values for the labour markets in all of the participating countries are looking positive, reaching the 100-point mark or higher. Compared to June, however, the values in almost all countries fell or stagnated. Only the Czech Republic, Austria and Belgium-Flanders saw a slight rise.

The components for the growth of both unemployment and employment appear slightly muted. The sub-indicator for the future development of unemployment figures hardly fell at all in July, dropping by 0.1 point to 105.6 points. It therefore exceeds the sub-indicator for employment growth, which fell more significantly by 0.8 points to 104.0 points.

The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 17 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components "unemployment" and "employment" constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average.

The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer, including its components for all 17 participating employment services, is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available at https://doku.iab.de/kurzber/2020/kb2120.pdf.

European Labour Market Barometer: Leap to a record level

The European Labour Market Barometer climbed to 105.3 points in June, thus lying exactly 10 points higher than in June 2020. With a rise of 1.9 points compared to May 2021, the leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) surpasses the highest level since its first measurement in June 2018.

“The European public employment services see a significant recovery ahead for their labour markets,” reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. The leading indicator values for the labour markets in all of the participating countries are clearly in the positive, exceeding the 100-point mark. Great leaps of at least 2.0 points have been recorded by Iceland, Malta, Belgium-Wallonia, Germany, Belgium-Flanders, Luxembourg, Poland and Austria.

There is growing optimism with regard to the outlook for both unemployment and employment growth. The sub-indicator for the future development of unemployment figures rose by 1.8 points to 105.8 points in June. The sub-indicator for employment growth showed a slightly larger rise of 2.0 points to 104.8 points.

European Labour Market Barometer: Biggest rise recorded so far

The European Labour Market Barometer climbed to 103.3 points in May. With a rise of 2.0 points compared to April, the leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) therefore registered its strongest growth since its records began. “The grip of the pandemic is easing,” says IAB head of forecast Enzo Weber, feeling optimistic. “Europe’s labour markets are starting to recover.”

The outook having been cloudy for a long time due to the COVID crisis, the European employment services currently no longer expect to see a relevant deterioration in the labour markets in any of the participating countries. Upward leaps of at least 2.0 points have been recorded by Denmark, Iceland, Austria, Liechtenstein, Portugal and Germany.

The outlook is optimistic regarding both employment growth and unemployment. The sub-indicator for the future development of unemployment figures revealed a sharp increase of 2.7 points to 103.8 points in May. This therefore lies above the sub-indicator for employment growth, which likewise showed a marked– although weaker – rise by 1.3 points to 102.7 points.

The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 16 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components "unemployment" and "employment" constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average. Without taking Switzerland into account, which participated for the first time in May 2021, the barometer would show the same score.

European Labour Market Barometer: A more positive outlook on the European labour market

The European Labour Market Barometer continues to rise in April and reaches 101.2 points, signalling a more positive outlook on the development of the labour markets in Europe. The leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) rises by 0.5 points compared to March, and clearly surpasses the 100-point mark – which would signify a stagnation in development.

The differences in prospects on the labour markets in the different countries clearly grew during the COVID crisis, but that has returned to normal again in the meantime and the differences are no longer as marked, with countries with poorer prospects catching up. “With regard to the development of the labour market, there is a slight feeling of optimism establishing itself in the European public employment services,” declares IAB head of forecast Enzo Weber.

However, he says that COVID still remains the determining factor. “The labour market prospects in Europe are predominantly looking more positive where the COVID situation has recently improved,” declares Weber. The key to the positive development on the labour market in the short term is therefore to push back the pandemic effectively.

There are signs of an improved outlook regarding both employment growth and unemployment. The European Labour Market Barometer’s sub-indicator for the future development of employment increased by 0.6 points to 101.4 points in April. It is therefore slightly higher than the sub-indicator for the development of unemployment figures, which rises by 0.4 points to 101.0 points.

The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer including its components for all 16 participating employment services is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available at https://www.iab-forum.de/en/launch-of-the-european-labour-market-barometer/.

European Labour Market Barometer: No longer in the negative for the first time since the start of the crisis

In March, the European Labour Market Barometer rose by 1.3 points to 100.6 points compared to the previous month. Therefore, the leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) has risen above the 100-point mark for the first time since the start of the crisis and does not signal any downturn in the European labour market over the next few months.

The European Labour Market Barometer rose in all countries or at least remained the same. “The public employment services in Europe expect the labour markets in Europe to stabilise,” says IAB head of forecast Enzo Weber. No change for the worse is therefore anticipated with regard to unemployment or employment. “But that still doesn’t signify a clear recovery,” Weber explains.

In March, the European Labour Market Barometer’s sub-indicator for the future development of employment increased by 1.2 points to 100.7 points. It is therefore roughly on a par with the sub-indicator for the development of unemployment figures, which has reached the level of 100.6 points after a clear rise of 1.5 points. “It is possible for the European labour market to improve further, but to achieve that, the COVID-19 pandemic has to be brought under control,” Weber declares.

European Labour Market Barometer: Hope for an end to the downturn in Europe

Compared to the previous month, the European Labour Market Barometer rose by 1.1 points in February. Standing at 99.3 points, the leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) thus no longer suggests a significant downturn of the European labour market in the coming months.

"The public employment services in Europe expect the pressure on labour markets to ease with the relaxation of the restrictions after the second Covid wave and the prospect of increasing vaccinations," says IAB head of forecast Enzo Weber, who initiated the European barometer. In the vast majority of participating countries, the outlook improved or at least remained stable. Nevertheless, the European Labour Market Barometer does not point to a recovery of the European labour market yet. In addition, there are risks of a renewed increase in the dynamics of infections, which became clearer after the end of the survey period in mid-February.

In February, the European Labour Market Barometer's sub-indicator for the development of employment increased significantly by 1.2 points thus reaching 99.4 points. This is the first time since July 2020 that it lies above the sub-indicator for the development of unemployment figures, which reached a level of 99.1 points after an increase of 0.8 points. "During the Corona crisis, many workers across Europe withdrew from the labour market completely. Now the improved employment outlook gives hope that they can be partially reactivated and that the process is stopped," Weber explains.

The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey among the local or regional employment agencies in 16 participating public employment services. The survey is carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. Participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components "unemployment" and "employment" constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in form of a weighted average.

European Labour Market Barometer: Dry spell for the job market in Europe

At the beginning of the year, the European Labour Market Barometer fell by 0.5 points compared to December. At 98.2 points, the indicator is at its lowest level since August 2020. In contrast to last spring, however, the leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) is only moderately negative.

"The European labour market is again coming under greater pressure in the pandemic – but it will be able to cope with it overall," explains IAB head of forecast Enzo Weber, who initiated the European barometer. In the face of a heavy second Corona wave, setbacks for the European labour market are to be expected. However, the effects are countered by the prospect of sustained improvement due to the ongoing vaccinations.

The European Labour Market Barometer's sub-indicator for the development of unemployment declined significantly by 0.8 points and stands at 98.3 points in January. Therefore, seasonally adjusted unemployment figures in Europe are expected to rise in the coming months. Similarly, the sub-indicator for employment fell by 0.3 points, standing at 98.1 points. "For the second spring in the Corona pandemic, the European public employment services expect another dry spell in the labour market," Weber said.

European Labour Market Barometer: No new slump in Europe’s job market

Compared to the previous month, the European Labor Market Barometer rose by 0.5 points in December concluding the year at 98.9 points. The leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) thus points to a likely moderate, negative development of the European labor market in the coming months.

"The public employment services in Europe expect the European labour market to withstand the second Corona wave," explains IAB head of forecast Enzo Weber, who initiated the European Barometer. The burdens of renewed lockdown measures in many countries are high, but there will not be a new labour market slump. Short-time work supports employment in many countries.

The European Labor Market Barometer's sub-indicator for the development of unemployment rose by 0.4 to 99.2 points in December. At this value just below the neutral mark of 100 points, seasonally-adjusted unemployment in Europe is likely only to increase slightly. After a gain of 0.6 points, the employment sub-indicator shows moderately pessimistic expectations of the European employment services for the short-term employment trend at a level of 98.6 points. "The labour market is stabilising, but the road to recovery is still long in Europe," Weber said.

The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer including its components for all 16 participating employment services is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components.xlsx.
More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available at www.iab-forum.de/en/launch-of-the-european-labour-market-barometer.

European Labour Market Barometer: Slightly subdued outlook due to second corona wave

In November, the European Labour Market Barometer stands at 98.5 points. The leading indicator published by the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) thus points to a moderately negative development of the European labour market in the coming months.

"During the spring lockdown, the European labour market was in a state of shock. While the second corona wave is hampering its recovery, another Europe-wide downturn is not expected," explains IAB head of forecast Enzo Weber, who initiated the European Barometer.

The sub-indicator of the European Labour Market Barometer for the development of unemployment reaches 99.1 points in November. Seasonally adjusted unemployment may thus increase slightly. The sub-indicator for employment, standing at 98.0 points, reflects the employment services' moderately pessimistic projections for short-term employment. "With vaccines on the horizon, there is a glimmer of hope. This enthusiasm is offset in the short term by the effect of the lockdowns in European countries", said Weber.

This autumn, the barometer values per country are unusually divergent. This reflects the varying development and extent of the second corona wave and government reactions that are much less uniform compared to the first lockdown in spring.

The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey among the local or regional employment agencies in 16 participating public employment services. The survey is carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. Participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components "unemployment" and "employment" constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in form of a weighted average. In November, Poland participated for the first time and started with a comparatively low barometer score. Without this effect, there would have been no decrease compared to the previous month.

The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer including its components for all 16 participating employment services is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components.xlsx.
More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available at www.iab-forum.de/en/launch-of-the-european-labour-market-barometer.

European Labour Market Barometer catching up

The European Labour Market Barometer has risen in October. The leading indicator for the European labour market generated by the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) increased by 0.5 points. Reaching 99.2 points the indicator is still in the negatives but has now recovered a significant part of the sharp decline in April.

"The labour market in Europe has recovered after the first lockdown in spring. However, the second corona wave poses a major risk throughout Europe once again," explains the IAB head of forecast Enzo Weber, who initiated the European Barometer. It should be noted that the survey period ended before the strong increase in infections in the past two to three weeks.

The sub-indicator of the European Labour Market Barometer for the development of seasonally adjusted unemployment rose by 0.8 to 100.3 points in October. It has thus left the negative area that signals rising unemployment in the next three months.

The sub-indicator for employment also increased compared to the previous month. At a value of 98.2, it continues to reflect scepticism about the employment trends despite a plus of 0.3 points. "The uncertainty about further setbacks on the European labour market remains", says Weber.

The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey among the local or regional employment agencies in 15 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. Participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components "unemployment" and "employment" constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). For each of the participating employment services, a barometer is determined, from which the European barometer is derived as a weighted average.

The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer including its components for all 15 participating employment services are available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available at https://www.iab-forum.de/en/launch-of-the-european-labour-market-barometer/.