In December 2021, the European Labour Market Barometer fell for the sixth time running, dropping by 1.2 points compared with November to 101.2 points. The labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) thus records it second-biggest decline in its history since April 2020.
“The Omicron wave is already casting a shadow over the outlook on the European labour market,” reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. The barometer is primarily showing a decline in the Central European countries of Austria, Liechtenstein, Germany, the Czech Republic, Belgium-Wallonia and Switzerland.
The barometer’s two sub-indicators both lose more than one point. The European Labour Market Barometer’s sub-indicator for the development of seasonally adjusted unemployment figures falls by 1.5 points compared to November 2021, standing at 99.8 points in December. The indicator therefore lies below the middle mark of 100 points for the first time since February 2021. “This means that the decline in unemployment in Europe has ceased for the time being,” says Weber. The sub-indicator for seasonally adjusted employment growth falls by 1.1 points to 102.5 points. This continues to be a good value and still correlates with a favourable employment outlook overall.
The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 17 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components "unemployment" and "employment" constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average.
The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer, including its components for all 17 participating employment services, is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available at https://doku.iab.de/kurzber/2020/kb2120.pdf.