The Dark Shadow of Benefit Reforms in the Open Economy

This paper analyzes the open-economy spillover effects of labor market reforms under incomplete insurance. Using microeconomic data, we document a boost in the tradable sector in the aftermath of the German Hartz IV reform. In our model, this phenomenon can be explained by an increase in household savings due to higher precautionary savings in response to the reduction in the generosity of unemployment insurance (Hartz IV). Besides reducing unemployment in the reforming country, lower unemployment benefits generate long-run negative consumption spillovers in a monetary union, which we call the dark shadow of labor market reforms. Our model can match various German trends post Hartz IV reform, such as: i) a lasting increase in net foreign asset position, ii) short-term expansion of the tradable sector relative to the non-tradable sector, and iii) continued depreciation of the real exchange rate. By contrast, simulations of German wage moderation result in qualitatively different open-economy effects that are not in line with the empirical patterns for Germany.

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