Technological Rivalry and the Allocation of Talent: Evidence from China’s College Admission

This paper studies how the U.S-China technology rivalry reshapes college admissions across fields of study using novel college admissions data from China.

Exploiting differential exposure to tariff escalation and export restrictions across major-region pairs over time, we find that more exposed pairs experience larger increases in admissions selectivity and enrollment, particularly for STEM majors and elite universities.

A one percentage point increase in the tariff exposure raises admission cutoff scores by 2-3 percent. Labor market returns shift in the same direction, with rising wage premia for STEM-related and R&D-intensive positions, consistent with a defensive-innovation channel in which rivalry pressure spurs self-reliance and innovation effort in China, increasing demand for science and high-end engineering skills.

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