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Smiling graduates at graduation

Entry conditions and the transition from tertiary education to employment

This paper uses monthly data on tertiary education graduates in 17 European countries covering 2004-2017 to assess the short-run effects of entry conditions on the transition into employment. Using an instrumental variables approach, an increase in the graduation unemployment rate of one percentage point is found to reduce the hazard rate of transitioning from unemployment into employment by 3.6 percent. This effect is stronger for females than males although the difference disappears when analysing transitions from inactivity into employment. A longer duration of initial unemployment may therefore help to explain long-run negative effects of unfavourable entry conditions found in earlier studies.

IAB-Discussion Paper 23/2022