The European Labour Market Barometer continues to rise in April and reaches 101.2 points, signalling a more positive outlook on the development of the labour markets in Europe. The leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) rises by 0.5 points compared to March, and clearly surpasses the 100-point mark – which would signify a stagnation in development.
The differences in prospects on the labour markets in the different countries clearly grew during the COVID crisis, but that has returned to normal again in the meantime and the differences are no longer as marked, with countries with poorer prospects catching up. “With regard to the development of the labour market, there is a slight feeling of optimism establishing itself in the European public employment services,” declares IAB head of forecast Enzo Weber.
However, he says that COVID still remains the determining factor. “The labour market prospects in Europe are predominantly looking more positive where the COVID situation has recently improved,” declares Weber. The key to the positive development on the labour market in the short term is therefore to push back the pandemic effectively.
There are signs of an improved outlook regarding both employment growth and unemployment. The European Labour Market Barometer’s sub-indicator for the future development of employment increased by 0.6 points to 101.4 points in April. It is therefore slightly higher than the sub-indicator for the development of unemployment figures, which rises by 0.4 points to 101.0 points.
The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 16 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components "unemployment" and "employment" constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average.
The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer including its components for all 16 participating employment services is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available at https://www.iab-forum.de/en/launch-of-the-european-labour-market-barometer/.