The free movement of labour: More benefits than risks for Germany

Abstract

"Based on an econometric model the report finds that net migration from the 8 New Member States which joined the EU in May 1 2004 into the EU-15 will amount to about 230.000 persons p.a. in the next years. Between 45 and 60 per cent of those will move to Germany, which equals between 100,000 and 140,000 persons p.a. The migration will increase the GDP per capita and welfare in Germany. The labour market effects are modest: The cumulative migration between 2011 and 2020 will reduce wages by 0.28 and 0.4 percent and increase unemployment by 0.14 and 0.2 percentage points, in the long-term the effects are neutral." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Baas, T. & Brücker, H. (2011): Arbeitnehmerfreizügigkeit zum 1. Mai 2011: Mehr Chancen als Risiken für Deutschland. (IAB-Kurzbericht 10/2011), Nürnberg, 8 p.