On the long-term development of qualification-specific labour supply and labour demand in Germany : empirical findings and current projection results

Abstract

"For the competitiveness and efficiency of the high-technology and high-wage country of Germany, the size and structure of the human capital is becoming increasingly important. This development is reflected in a constant rise in the employment system's demands regarding the qualification level, a trend that will further continue according to all current demand projections. However, the future qualification-specific labour supply might not be able to keep pace with these dynamics on the demand side in the long term. Not only the demographic change but also the qualification development of the population are against it. For the middle-aged and older age groups already represent the majority of skilled labour supply nowadays. A reasonably adequate substitution of the skilled labour force can only be expected, however, if the workers of the following years with low birth rates were to be trained significantly better than the older generation soon to withdraw from the labour force. This is not in sight now, however, as the education expansion of earlier times has in the mean time stagnated in many areas. This pessimistic judgement is also further substantiated by the current projection results of the Joint Federal-Land Commission for Educational Planning and the Promotion of Research Activities. According to these results, a shortage has to be reckoned with as early as 2015, especially in the labour market for graduates, and more moderately also in the market for skilled personnel with in-firm training. This shortage situation can only be reduced by a set of countermeasures. In addition to an improvement in the employment opportunities of women and older workers, as well as a controlled immigration policy, this includes especially the activation of all reserves on all levels of education, vocational training and further training." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Reinberg, A. & Hummel, M. (2002): Zur langfristigen Entwicklung des qualifikationsspezifischen Arbeitskräfteangebots und -bedarfs in Deutschland. Empirische Befunde und aktuelle Projektionsergebnisse. In: Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Vol. 35, No. 4, p. 580-600.