Eastward enlargement of the European Union

Abstract

"As the accession negotiations continue between the European Union and the Central and Eastern European countries, Germany in particular fears that granting free movement of labour to these countries might generate a wave of new entrants that could overwhelm its labour market. The following article uses migration determinants and draws on previous experience of integrating countries into the EU in an attempt to reach conclusions about the migration patterns that may result from the forthcoming eastward enlargement. There are already signs that Poland - as the largest new accession country - is bringing itself into line with the EU, similarly to the way that the Mediterranean countries did at the time of the southward enlargement: an intensive expansion of trade with EU countries (with Germany in particular), comparatively high economic growth with an increase in per capita GNP, and an improving employment situation. Fears of a massive wave of immigration proved unfounded at the time of past EU enlargements, and are also not expected for the forthcoming eastward enlargement. Nevertheless,because of the large differences in income and wages which currently exist between the accession countries and the EU, it can be assumed that it will not be possible to grant full freedom of movement until after a transition period of several years after accession - as was the case with the southward enlargement." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Hönekopp, E. & Werner, H. (2000): Eastward enlargement of the European Union. A wave of immigration? In: IAB Labour Market Research Topics No. 40, p. 1-9.