The Labour Market for Care and Nursing in the Mirror of Demographic Change

Abstract

In the coming years and decades, demographic change will affect the care and nursing sector in Germany to an exceptional extent. On the one hand, a rapid increase in the share of elderly people in the population is foreseeable, so far more people requiring care and nursing will live in Germany. On the other hand, these people's relatives face a potential double pressure if they are employed and, at the same time, must or want to cover the family's nursing requirements. As a possible solution to this problem, ambulant services or residences supplying nursing are considered to provide for sufficient care. Yet, commercial suppliers already have difficulties recruiting qualified staff. In this context, the article first presents important facts on people in need of care and the current situation of suppliers of care and nursing services. Afterwards, particular components of demographic change and the development of the population in Germany until 2050 are illustrated. Thereby it becomes clear that, in addition to the general decrease of the population, especially the age structure will face dramatic changes. On this basis, model calculations of future numbers of people requiring nursing are presented. The aim of the article is to contrast these findings with the bulk of existing studies to obtain a realistic assessment of the future development of the nursing sector.

Cite article

Pohl, C. (2009): Der Arbeitsmarkt für Pflege im Spiegel demographischer Veränderungen. (VKAD infoDienst 10/2009), Freiburg, 30 p.