"Grauer Pflegemarkt" und professioneller Pflegearbeitsmarkt in Bayern - Entwicklung der Zahl der Pflegebedürftigen und des Pflegearbeitsmarktes bis zum Jahr 2020

Abstract

"In this statement, IAB comments on the results of its own model calculations on people in need of old-age care, receiving care either by professional nursing staff or by family members and other household helpers, both for Germany as a whole and for the federal state of Bavaria. Two scenarios describe the possible range in the future number of people in need of professional care. Therein, the number of people requiring out-patient care in 2020 in Bavaria ranges between 88,000 and 110,000. For the in-patient nursing sector, the model calculations yield a range from 139,000 to 169,000. Thus, between 138,000 and 190,000 people in need of care would be provided directly by family members or household helpers. If the relation of care personnel and people in need of care remains constant, the future demand for professional nursing staff in Bavaria amounts to between 100,000 and 122,000 (in full-time equivalents). Should demand for staff decrease due to productivity increases in the caring sector, increases in demand are somewhat smaller. Such progress in productivity, however, considering the high intensity of labour in this sector, should stay very limited, compared to other industries.<br> The model calculations reveal in how far the development in the professional-care labour market depends on the intervention of family members and on technological progress. From IAB's perspective, however, it is also influenced by the employment of Non-German household helpers. Needy people's relatives face a decision between providing care by themselves, employing out-patient care services, making use of in-patient care in a nursing home, and employing a (foreign) household helper. As the employment of foreign household helpers is often the cheapest alter-native to providing care by oneself - especially if care requirements demand a lot of time - this form of employment could gain further importance in the near future. This development is favoured by the increasing number in cases of dementia, as these cases typically require full-time care. Since the legal framework is changing during time and it can, under certain conditions, substantially influence the choice in the form of care, these incentives have deliberately been excluded from the model calculations.<br> Since mid-2010, there exists a sectoral minimum wage for the care workforce. Its effects on labour supply can not be determined unambiguously a priori, because of interdependencies between the care labour market and other sectors (as well as clandestine employment). These are determined not only by basic conditions of the care sector, but also by conditions in the other labour market segments (working hours, wages, occupational perspectives, etc.), which may also vary during time." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Pohl, C. (2011): "Grauer Pflegemarkt" und professioneller Pflegearbeitsmarkt in Bayern - Entwicklung der Zahl der Pflegebedürftigen und des Pflegearbeitsmarktes bis zum Jahr 2020. Gemeinsame Anhörung der Ausschüsse für Soziales, Familie und Arbeit und für Umwelt und Gesundheit des Bayerischen Landtags am 30. Juni 2011. (IAB-Stellungnahme 07/2011), Nürnberg, 16 p.