A Decade of Integration: Labor-Market Trajectories of Refugees Who Arrived in Germany in 2015 (im Erscheinen)

Abstract

"The 2015 humanitarian inflow represented one of the largest refugee arrivals in post-war European history, bringing questions of long-term integration into the labor market and broader society to the forefront of scientific, public, and policy debates. While short- and medium-term outcomes have been widely studied, little is known about labor-market trajectories a decade after arrival. We examine the long-term economic integration of refugees who arrived in Germany in 2015 and analyze how individual and contextual factors are associated with their employment outcomes. Using longitudinal data from the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees linked to administrative records from the Integrated Employment Biographies (IEB) of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), we conduct descriptive and multivariate analyses covering ten years of residence (2015–2025). By 2025, employment rates had risen to 67 percent, approaching the level of the overall population in Germany. However, substantial gender and regional disparities persist: women’s employment remains considerably lower than men’s, and labor-market trajectories vary markedly across regions depending on local labor-market conditions and the social climate. Earnings increase over time but remain below the national median, while many refugees are employed in low-wage, low-skill, yet essential occupations. Legal certainty regarding residence status, participation in integration and language programs, and counseling services are positively associated with employment and earnings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Jaschke, P., Brücker, H. & Kosyakova, Y. (2026): A Decade of Integration: Labor-Market Trajectories of Refugees Who Arrived in Germany in 2015 (im Erscheinen). In: Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie.