Langfristige Folgen der Covid-19-Pandemie für Wirtschaft, Branchen und Berufe

Abstract

"The corona pandemic has changed the reality of life for large parts of the population. Many of these changes will be reversed once the crisis has been successfully overcome. The BIBB-IAB qualification and occupation projections (QuBe-Projekt.de) continue these long-term trends up to the year 2040 in a baseline projection. However, the longer the pandemic lasts, the more likely it becomes that (compulsorily) practiced behavior, production methods and working methods will be retained after the crisis. This means that economic development in Germany may be facing a radical change that could also trigger other changes not considered here. This research report examines these possible long-term changes and shows their effects on the economy, branches and professions. The assumptions made in this research report lead to a lower gross domestic product in the medium term, but to a higher gross domestic product in the long term than in the QuBe baseline projection. Both labor demand and labor supply are lower over the entire projection horizon. The labor demand in 2025 will be around 200,000 employed persons (2040: -210,000) below the QuBe baseline projection. Te greatest decline in labor supply will be in 2026 with around –110,000 people (2040: -30,000). With regard to the labor demand according to sector-occupation combinations in 2040, it can be seen that in the QuBe baseline projection there are around 320,000 jobs that are no longer available in the post-Corona scenario. On the other hand, there will be about 100,000 jobs in 2040 in the Post-Corona scenario that will not exist in the QuBe baseline projection. At the branch level, it is primarily corporate service providers and the hospitality industry that will have a lower demand for workers. Conversely, IT service providers, domestic services, homes and social services as well as public administration will have a higher demand. At the occupational level commercial services, trade in goods, distribution, hotel and tourism as well as traffic, logistics, protection and security will see the greatest declines in jobs as a result of the assumptions made." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Wolter, M., Mönnig, A., Maier, T., Schneemann, C., Steeg, S., Weber, E. & Zika, G. (2021): Langfristige Folgen der Covid-19-Pandemie für Wirtschaft, Branchen und Berufe. (IAB-Forschungsbericht 02/2021), Nürnberg, 36 p.