Electromobility 2035: Economic and labour market effects through the electrification of powertrains in passenger cars

Abstract

"This study focuses on the economic effects of the phenomenon of the electrification of powertrains in passenger cars (e-mobility). The automotive industry is one of the leading sectors in Germany and the country is one of the world's leading car producers. Therefore the economic impact could be extensive. Using the scenario technique, a number of assumptions have been made and integrated into the QINFORGE analytical tool. At the beginning of the scenario, the underlying assumptions have a positive effect on the economic development. However, in the long run they lead to a lower GDP and level of employment. The change in technology will lead to 114,000 job cuts by the end of 2035. The economy as a whole will lose nearly 20 billion euros (0.6 % of the GDP). In the scenario, we assumed a share of only 23 percent of electric cars as compared to all new registered cars in 2035. The electrification of powertrains will have negative effects especially on skilled workers. The demand for specialist and expert activities will also decrease with a time delay. A much higher market penetration could lead to stronger economic effects. Furthermore, a higher market share of domestically produced cars and traction batteries could generate more positive economic effects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Mönnig, A., Schneemann, C., Weber, E., Zika, G. & Helmrich, R. (2019): Electromobility 2035: Economic and labour market effects through the electrification of powertrains in passenger cars. (IAB-Discussion Paper 08/2019), Nürnberg, 44 p.