Substitution potentials of Occupations and Changeability of Occupational Profiles : Presentation for Project Group 1 of the Study Commission "Vocational Training in the Digital Work Environment" of the German Bundestag on 11 March 2019

Abstract

"This IAB statement summarises the oral presentation on the subject of 'Substitution potentials of occupations and changeability of occupational profiles' at the meeting of Project Group 1 of the Study Commission 'Vocational Training in the Digital Work Environment' of the German Bundestag on 11 March 2019. In order to determine the impacts of digital transformation on the labour market, the IAB calculated so-called substitution potentials. The substitution potential indicates the extent to which occupations or occupational tasks can be replaced by computers or computer-controlled machines. The substitution potentials were calculated for the first time for 2013. However, as the digital transformation progresses and occupational profiles change over time, the substitution potentials were updated for 2016. By comparing the results of 2016 with those of 2013, statements about the changeability of occupational profiles are possible. Between 2013 and 2016, the substitution potentials increased across all requirement levels and in almost all occupational segments, only in the IT and natural science service occupa-tions as well as in medical and non-medical health occupations they have fallen slightly. This can be explained by the fact that the occupational profiles in these two occupational seg-ments have changed to such an extent that they have been able to keep pace with technological possibilities. It has also been shown that in Germany between 2013 and 2016 the proportion of employees subject to social insurance contributions who work in an occupation with a high substitution potential rose from approximately 15 percent to approximately 25 percent. The sharp increase in the number of employees affected by a high substitution potential demonstrates that in the last few years the occupational profiles of employees have changed more slowly than the potential applica-tions of new technologies in these occupations. However, this does not mean that the same number of jobs will be eliminated due to digital transformation. Substitution potentials consider only the technical feasibility. Whether these tasks are actually taken over by computers will also depend on other factors. Furthermore, occupations will rarely disappear; they will change. Against this background, one of the greatest challenges will be (further) education." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Dengler, K. (2019): Substituierbarkeitspotenziale von Berufen und Veränderbarkeit von Berufsbildern. Impulsvortrag für die Projektgruppe 1 der Enquete-Kommission "Berufliche Bildung in der digitalen Arbeitswelt" des Deutschen Bundestags am 11.3.2019. (IAB-Stellungnahme 02/2019), Nürnberg, 19 p.