Immigration and digitisation* How much migration from third countries will the German labour market require in the future?

Abstract

"Against the backdrop of the discussion about a demographically induced decreasing labour force potential, the question addressed by the study was: How high is the future immigration requirement from non-EU countries (third countries) for the decrease in labour force potential to remain manageable? A 'minimum labour force potential' that only just covers the labour demand was defined as manageable. This potential considers higher employment rates of women and older people as well as latent potentials regarding the employment of foreigners and an increase of the retirement age. The required forecast of the labour demand was based on a scenario that includes the influence of digitisation. From the net immigration required for the 'minimum labour force potential' and the net immigration from the EU, the immigration from third countries results as a residual figure. The forecast for the EU is based on a complex and differentiated economic panel model of migration flows between Germany and the other EU countries. In accordance with these expectations, the estimates revealed a decreasing immigration from EU countries in the near future. The contribution also discusses the effects of the Brexit on migration events. The qualification requirements that are changing as part of the digitisation process were conclusively compared with the current qualification structures of migrants. Against this backdrop and on the basis of the latest insights with regards to integration of migrants, this results in considerations for a new orientation of immigration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Fuchs, J., Kubis, A. & Schneider, L. (2019): Zuwanderung und Digitalisierung. Wie viel Migration aus Drittstaaten benötigt der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt künftig? Gütersloh, 113 p. DOI:10.11586/2019011