Growth in the population but low unemployment : results of the fifth wave of the BIBB-IAB qualification and occupational projections up to the year 2035

Abstract

"The results of the fifth wave of the qualification and occupational projections which were carried out under the joint direction of the Bundesinstituts für Berufsbildung (Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, BIBB) and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) in cooperation with the Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbH (Institute of Economic Structures Research, GWS) provide an overview of a foreseeable development of the German labour market up to the year 2035. It becomes apparent that the population will increase temporarily but considerably on account of the strong gains in immigration. However, despite the increase in the supply of labour, no increase in unemployment will ensue. Instead, the labour market will be marked by a shortage of employable persons. The demographic changes will not only mean a stronger internal demand for goods and services but will change the structure of persons in employment classified according to occupations. In 2035, the health sector will have the most persons in employment. At the same time, considered in an absolute way, the greatest shortages will be in medical occupations. Agricultural occupations on the other hand will lose their attractivity so that shortages will ensue here as well. The possible recruitment situation in individual occupations will be presented by way of a new indicator for qualified staff (Fachkräfteindikator, FKI). Detailed results for the 141 occupational groups can be found at www.qube-data.de ." (Author's abstract) ((en))

Cite article

Maier, T., Zika, G., Kalinowski, M., Mönnig, A., Wolter, M. & Schneemann, C. (2018): Bevölkerungswachstum bei geringer Erwerbslosigkeit. Ergebnisse der fünften Welle der BIBB-IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektionen bis zum Jahr 2035. (BIBB-Report 2018,07), Leverkusen, 24 p.