The impacts of digital transformation on the labour market : substitution potentials of occupations in Germany

Abstract

The intention is to document the severity of the effects of digitalisation on the labour market through analyses which show that half of the work places of today will cease to exist over the coming ten to twenty years because of automisation. Here the assertions are based on evaluations of the future automisation of complete occupations. However, for this article, it is assumed that it will be a question of specific fields of activity within occupations which will be subject to the risk of automatisation and not of complete occupations that will disappear. Substitution potentials in Germany are calculated using the IAB Establishment History Panel. Here it is a question of roughly 8,000 activities for which the likelihood of substitution by computer or by a computer-controlled machine is evaluated. The aim is not a prognosis but rather an estimation on the basis of the technological possibilities of today. At the same time, though, the results achieved make it possible to maintain that the earlier studies, such as the one mentioned above, have clearly overestimated the likelihood of automisation as they did not focus on the level of single activities. If one assumes that only certain activities can be replaced, one ends up with the figure 15: accordingly, not 50 but rather 15 per cent of employees in Germany are at risk from digitalisation. In addition, the article provides indications about the relationships between the risks of automisation and growth in employment. (IAB)

Cite article

Dengler, K. & Matthes, B. (2018): The impacts of digital transformation on the labour market. Substitution potentials of occupations in Germany. In: Technological forecasting & social change, Vol. 137, No. December, p. 304-316. DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2018.09.024