New labour market forecast 2011: records and risks

Abstract

"Despite massive labour hoarding during the international crisis 2008/09, the quick and sustainable recovery in Germany is not to be classified as jobless growth - employment started to grow immediately. The economic expansion will continue in 2011, but at a lower rate. Assuming GDP growth to amount to 3 percent, we forecast a sharp increase in employment (+360.000) and decrease in unemployment (-320.000). On yearly average, employment at 40.84 million and unemployment at 2.93 million will reach their optimum values after 1991. At the moment, any forecast is restricted to the pre-condition, that the serve risks stemming from high public debt in European Monetary Union member states, civil disturbance in Northern Africa, the natural and nuclear catastrophes in Japan, or inflation will not come true." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Fuchs, J., Hummel, M., Klinger, S., Spitznagel, E., Wanger, S., Weber, E. & Zika, G. (2011): Neue Arbeitsmarktprognose 2011: Rekorde und Risiken. (IAB-Kurzbericht 07/2011), Nürnberg, 12 p.