Fachkräftemangel: Inländische Personalreserven als Alternative zur Zuwanderung

Abstract

"Demographic ageing will reduce labor supply in the long run. This could result in a substantial labor shortage. Attracting migrants and promotion of labor participation of females and older persons are discussed to mitigate the problem. Recent studies, however, suggest a decline in the migration inflow. Therefore, our study focuses on the question, whether domestic human resources will be sufficient to close the gap between future labor supply and demand. Based on most up-to-date labor force projections we simulate and analyze scenarios even using rather extreme assumptions regarding labor participation rates, in particular of women and older people. The results show higher labor participation rates can only partially compensate the demographic influence, as the working age population will shrink to a greater extend and faster than the participation rates. In addition, some workers might not be able to meet the future job requirements. In this case the potential labor force would be even smaller." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Fuchs, J. & Weber, B. (2018): Fachkräftemangel: Inländische Personalreserven als Alternative zur Zuwanderung. (IAB-Discussion Paper 07/2018), Nürnberg, 24 p.