QuBe scenario 2/2017 : Demography modelling in QINFORGE. Possibilities and limitations of a differentiation according to origin

Abstract

In summary it can be said, therefore, that a branch-specific representation of digital transformation can lead to an economic growth path that is aligned according to nuances. As presented in the example of the electronic industry, although the basic effects are not called into question, they are however deferred in their intensity. With a digitalisation scenario geared to the electronic industry, a somewhat higher growth path in the gross domestic product, adjusted for price changes, will be achieved. This is above all because the early requirement of electronic products is necessary for the digital preparation of other branches. At the same time, the highly branch-specific characteristics of the branch will have an effect, as they imply a relatively high import content. An increase in the demand for electronic goods always leads to a relatively high demand for imports. For this reason, economic growth will also fall under the Business 4.0 scenario in the long term, as described in Wolter et al. (2016)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku)

Cite article

Mönnig, A., Wolter, M., Zika, G. & Maier, T. (2017): QuBe-Szenario 2/2017. Demografiemodellierung in QINFORGE. Möglichkeiten und Grenzen einer Ausdifferenzierung nach Herkunft. (GWS discussion paper 2017,05), Osnabrück, 16 p.