Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2060: Arbeitskräfteangebot sinkt auch bei hoher Zuwanderung

Abstract

"The German potential labour force is expected to shrink strongly for demographic reasons. Even if we assume an annual net migration of 200,000 persons, which is approximately the average over a longer historical period, the potential labour force will drop from the current (2015) high level of 45.8m workers to 38.9m in 2060. The report also evaluates the effect of a higher migration inflow, a rise in the birth rates, the influence of increasing labour participation rates of women and older persons and a better integration of female migrants. Neither of these improvements could compensate for the demographic development nor can the sum." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Fuchs, J., Söhnlein, D. & Weber, B. (2017): Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2060: Arbeitskräfteangebot sinkt auch bei hoher Zuwanderung. (IAB-Kurzbericht 06/2017), Nürnberg, 8 p.