Forecasting of employment in Germany

Abstract

"After a brief general overview this paper describes the development and use of an econometric model for All of Germany at the Institute for Employment Research (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB)). In addition, the main considerations of the economic scenarios which form the basis of the manpower forecast will be discussed. The Employment Promotion Act (Arbeitsförderungsgesetz, AFG) of 1969 entrusted the Bundesanstalt für Arbeit with the task to perform labour market and occupational research. This task with its general terms of reference leads to a wide rang' of questions to be answered. Thus, these are many instruments, concepts and methods at the IAB for answering these questions. Some instruments and concepts are of major importance for medium and long term forecasts of gainful employment. Parthy they deal qualitatively as background information, partly they can be used as quantitative specifications, roughly in the sense of exogenous variables. The most important ones will be briefly enumerated. In the 'labour force accounting system', the available data on all stocks and flows for the labour market are compiled into a uniform, self-contained and consistent system. This is comparable to the system of national accounts. Among other things, labour force accounts are used as the basis for short term labour market forecasting. The IAB's 'education accounting system' is similar. It is based on a cohort approach and illustrates the stocks and flows within the education system and the labour market. The education accounts thus creates the basis for projections of the demand for education and of the new supply of labour." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Fuchs, J. (1995): Forecasting of employment in Germany. (Eurostat working paper 60), Brüssel, 16 p.