Forecasting regional employment with the ENTROP method

Abstract

"The paper provides an outline of a method useful for forecasting problems. The approach is based on a combination of top-down and bottom-up techniques. It is applied to project employment in all 327 (western) German districts for a time span of two years. The most important step in the preparation of the forecast uses the ENTROP method, which is an entropy optimizing procedure, a generalization of common RAS techniques, newly developed for the estimation of matrices from heterogenous information. In a defined sense the estimated matrix is the most probable one. The method chosen is very flexible and uses any available information extensively. Therefore, the estimates are reliable as is shown in an ex-post forecast. There is a double for the forecast of employment. First, it helps to gain insights in the causal processes generating regional developments and spatial disparities on labour markets. Second, it is useful for regional labour market policies, e.g. the budgetary planning of the Federal Employment Services." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Blien, U. & Tassinopoulos, A. (2001): Forecasting regional employment with the ENTROP method. In: Regional Studies. Journal of the Regional Studies Association, Vol. 35, No. 2, p. 113-124.