Labour market forecasting in Germany

Abstract

"This paper examines whether labour market forecasts can be improved by using disaggregated information. We construct vector-autoregressive models for employment by sector in order to produce out-of-sample forecasts of aggregate employment. Forecast accuracy is compared to univariate models by using Clark/West tests. In an application to German data, it is evident that disaggregation significantly improves the employment forecast. Moreover, using fluctuation-window tests we find that disaggregation yields superior results especially in phases with strong and sustained employment changes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Weber, E. & Zika, G. (2016): Labour market forecasting in Germany. Is disaggregation useful? In: Applied Economics, Vol. 48, No. 23, p. 2183-2198. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2015.1117044