Forecasting the regional distribution of employment in East Germany

Abstract

"The report is part of the REGARIS (Regional Labour Market Information System) project and presents forecasts of the regional distribution of employment by sector in East Germany for the period up to 1997. Empirical studies on regional labour markets in East Germany are handicapped by the short history of the East German market economy as well as the frequent redefinitions of administrative regions. These problems enforce the usage of very simple estimation and forecasting procedures. In forecasting the regional distribution of employment a three step procedure is suggested. In a first step, estimates of simple OLS regressions disaggregated by nine sectors and 35 regional observation units are derived. In a second step, total employment in the East of Germany in the nine sectors of the economy are constructed which serve as a driving force in the final step. The final step uses the parameter estimates from step 1 as well as the aggregate sectorial employment time series forecasts derived in step two, to simulate the regional distribution of employment in East Germany. The results indicate some remarkable regional disparities. Thus for example most of the fringe areas of Berlin are expected to have above average employment growth rates whereas highly urbanized areas in East Germany are expected to have only an average or even below-average employment performance." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Seitz, H. (1996): Prognose der regionalen Verteilung der Beschäftigung in Ostdeutschland. In: Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Vol. 29, No. 3, p. 378-387.