Demographic aspects in the development of the labour market : the ageing of the labour force potential

Abstract

"Demographics and the supply side of the labour market are closely linked. This paper studies and evaluates the effects of the population development on the supply of workers. A long-term view is taken, where possible a 40-year observation period and an equally long projection period are considered. However, this generally limits the study to the old federal states. First the development of the population is described. Decreasing birth rates with increasing life expectancies and a negative natural population balance have led to distinct ageing tendencies in the population. Not even the impact of migration has basically changed this situation. This trend is overlapped by the effects of the 'birthrate bulge' of the 60s, which produces a wavy line in the population structure. The increasing ageing of the population is demonstrated and quantified by age structures and so-called demographic shares of the burden. A detailed explanation shows that the forecast results are relatively stable in comparison to the alternative forecast assumptions and thus exhibit a very high probability of occurrence. Also included in the development of the age structure of the labour force potential is the change in the labour force participation. However, this did not and will not influence the basic tendency towards an average ageing of the potential. Micro- and macroeconomic requirements issuing from the expected ageing of the labour force potential are briefly discussed. The share of the population in employment is reflected in the labour force participation rate. The decrease in the labour force participation of young men (15 to 29 years old) since 1974 is approximately as large as that of men in the top age brackets (50 to 64 years of age) when classed in five-year age brackets. The decreasing labour force participation for women is confined to the fringe age groups (15-19 and 60-64 years of age), otherwise an increasing labour market participation is observed. This pattern of development is further differentiated according to the labour force participation rates of individual age cohorts." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Thon, M. (1995): Demografische Aspekte der Arbeitsmarktentwicklung. Die Alterung des Erwerbspersonenpotentials. In: Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Vol. 28, No. 3, p. 290-299.