Distribution and determinants of lifetime unemployment

Abstract

"The empirical literature on unemployment almost exclusively focuses on the duration of distinct unemployment spells. In contrast, we use a unique administrative micro data set for the time span 1975-2004 to investigate individual lifetime unemployment - defined as the cumulative length of all unemployment spells over a 25-year period. This new perspective enables us to answer questions regarding the long-term distribution and determinants of unemployment for birth cohorts 1950-1954. We show that lifetime unemployment is highly concentrated on a small part of the population. With censored quantile regressions we investigate the long-lasting influence of bad luck early in the professional career: Controlling for individual and firm-characteristics we find that choosing at a young age what turns out to be an unfavourable occupation significantly increases the predicted amount of lifetime unemployment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Schmillen, A. & Möller, J. (2012): Distribution and determinants of lifetime unemployment. In: Labour economics, Vol. 19, No. 1, p. 33-47. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2011.06.013