Zuwanderungsbedarf aus Drittstaaten in Deutschland bis 2050

Abstract

"Labor supply is one of the determinants of growth potential. A decline in the potential labor force could lead to economic stagnation. For this reason, the German Council of Economic Experts, the Deutsche Bundesbank and other institutions have pointed to the risks posed by a shrinking potential labor force to growth and social-security systems. In fact, current economic forecasts indicate that labor needs will remain high even in the relatively near future. An increased demand for university graduates is projected. In addition, the replacement requirement for skilled workers with professional training is particularly high. By 2030, more than half of these individuals will have retired from working life, and - as forecasts indicate that enterprises' demand for workers with these qualifications will not significantly decrease in the future - they will have to be replaced by younger cohorts of workers.<br> With a declining pool of potential employees, it is possible that not all available jobs will be able to be filled. As a consequence, fewer employees would be required to shoulder future burdens, with rising contributions for pensions and health care to be expected, among other outcomes. Alongside the mobilization of domestic potential, strategies for a sustainable increase in the potential labor force aim particularly at the targeted recruitment of qualified skilled workers from abroad. In a statement on this issue, the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) stresses that immigration from third countries should be higher if the decline in the potential labor force is to be significantly curtailed. For this reason, the current study uses a hypothetical scenario to examine the need within Germany for immigration from non-EU countries (third countries)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Fuchs, J., Kubis, A. & Schneider, L. (2015): Zuwanderungsbedarf aus Drittstaaten in Deutschland bis 2050. Szenarien für ein konstantes Erwerbspersonenpotenzial - unter Berücksichtigung der zukünftigen inländischen Erwerbsbeteiligung und der EU-Binnenmobilität. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann, 91 p.