New challenges to the German labour market

Abstract

"Germany faces rising difficulties to elude the recessionary pressure of the Euro crisis. After having grown fairly well in the first half of 2012, GDP is expected to stagnate at best in the second half. However, the German economy is in fundamentally good shape and will recover over the next year if investment catches up again and the Euro crisis does not get even worse. After years of substantial improvement, the developments on the labour market have started to slow-down. Reaction to the Euro crisis, however, will be moderate. We expect unemployment to shrink by 80'000 people in 2012 and to rise slightly by 40'000 up to 2.94 million in 2013. By contrast, employment keeps on growing, though with mild speed: After an increase by 480'000 people this year and further 200'000 people next year it will reach an average of 41.85 million in 2013. The divergence between the developments of employment and unemployment is explained by rising labour force potential in 2012 and shrinking hidden reserve in 2012 and 2013." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Fuchs, J., Hummel, M., Hutter, C., Klinger, S., Vallé, J., Weber, E., Zapf, I. & Zika, G. (2012): IAB-Prognose 2012/2013: Neue Herausforderungen für den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt. (IAB-Kurzbericht 14/2012), Nürnberg, 12 p.