Can an increase in working time compensate for a decrease in the supply of labour?

Abstract

"As a consequence of democratic change, the German economy will be faced in the future with a manpower potential that is both aging and shrinking. This paper discusses the question of whether it is possible to mitigate, or even stop, the drop in the supply of labour by means of a higher participation in employment on the part of the population of Germany. To do this, scenarios using extreme assumptions about the participation of women and older persons in gainful employment have been calculated. These scenarios were extended by calculations that were based not on the usual 'pro-head consideration' of labour supply but on a volume component, that is, the effects of a longer annual working time were also analysed. The results show that the decline in the population can only be partially compensated for - and above all not permanently - by an extension of participation in gainful employment. Even with clearly longer annual working times, it is only possible to stop the decline in the supply of labour for a certain time. Germany will be forced to adapt itself to a distinctly smaller supply of labour. For this reason, an increased participation in gainful employment is absolutely necessary if time is to be gained for the requisite social adjustment processes to demographic change. One approach might be a topping up of the working times of women and older persons in part-time work which are often short not of their own choice." (Resume d'auteur, IAB-Doku) ((fr))

Cite article

Wanger, S., Weber, B. & Fuchs, J. (2013): Kann ein Anstieg der Arbeitszeit den Rückgang des Arbeitskräfteangebots kompensieren? In: M. Göke & T. Heupel (Hrsg.) (2013): Wirtschaftliche Implikationen des demografischen Wandels : Herausforderungen und Lösungsansätze, p. 335-348. DOI:10.1007/978-3-658-00307-4_22