The drop in labour supply and a quantification of domestic personnel reserves

Abstract

"In the long term, the megatrend 'demographic change' will imprint itself on the German labour market in a decisive way. The Federal Statistical Office forecasts a drop in the population of employable age (15 to 64 years old) by 2060 of 35 per cent (StBA 2009), assuming a net immigration of 100,000 persons annually, without which the drop would be even more severe. However, along with the demographic base, employment behaviour is also changing. This paper examines whether a higher participation in employment can cushion the expected decline in the supply of labour in the long term. The analysis is based on the current forecast of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) relating to the labour force potential. Nevertheless, the question of whether or not there is a corresponding need for more workers is not dealt with in this article." (Authors' abstract, IAB-Doku)

Cite article

Fuchs, J. & Weber, B. (2012): Rückgang des Arbeitskräfteangebots und Quantifizierung heimischer Personalreserven. In: Bundesinstitut für Bau-, Stadt- und Raumforschung (Hrsg.) (2012): Fachkräftemangel : ein neues, demografisch bedingtes Phänomen? (BBSR-Online-Publikation, 2012/02), p. 25-32.