Labour market forecast 2010: Economic crisis will leave its mark on the German labour market

Abstract

"Up to August 2009, the German labour market was almost unaffected by the economic crisis. Companies have tended to hoard labour in an unprecedented amount. Thus, productivity per hour and working time fell dramatically, whereas unit labour costs increased sharply. Since labour hoarding is costly and GDP growth is expected to rise by only 0.5 percent in 2010, the number of dismissals will probably increase during the Autumn and Winter of 2009/2010. As a consequence, employment may fall by 830,000 persons in 2010 and unemployment may rise by 640,000 persons up to a yearly average of 4.1 million. The short report forecasts and explains the developments on the German labour market in the near future." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Bach, H., Hummel, M., Klinger, S., Spitznagel, E. & Zika, G. (2009): Arbeitsmarkt-Projektion 2010: Die Krise wird deutliche Spuren hinterlassen. (IAB-Kurzbericht 20/2009), Nürnberg, 12 p.