The Influence of Demographic Developments on the Future Labour Force Potential in East and West Germany

Abstract

The focus of this investigation is on the question in how far the decline of the labour force potential in East and West Germany is to be traced back to demographic changes or changes in employment patterns. The investigation is based on variants of the projections by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). In this article, we first present the applied projection model (Chapter 2). Chapter 3 discusses the predicted development of the labour force potential in East and West Germany on the basis of the IAB projection. Furthermore, main influencing factors are derived (Chapter 4). It is shown how effects of these influencing factors can be isolated. Next to this, it is illustrated how the strength of effects varies both relatively and absolutely. Relating to findings on the sensitivity of demographic projections concerning the influence of fertility and mortality, as well as considerations on the future development of migration and employment participation, well-founded propositions on how labour supply can be influenced can be derived in Chapter 5.

Cite article

Fuchs, J. & Söhnlein, D. (2009): Der Einfluss der Bevölkerungsentwicklung auf das künftige Erwerbspersonenpotenzial in Ost- und Westdeutschland. In: I. Cassens, M. Luy & R. Scholz (Hrsg.) (2009): Die Bevölkerung in Ost- und Westdeutschland : demografische, gesellschaftliche und wirtschaftliche Entwicklungen seit der Wende, p. 200-222.