Demographic change and the economic performance of the regions in Brandenburg

Abstract

"In the coming years, demographic change will present the eastern part of Germany with substantial economic challenges. In Brandenburg - after the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy - one can without a doubt talk about a second transformation: through the aging and shrinking of the population, the state will be faced with considerable problems as regards its economic performance and innovative capacities. This article deals with the mid- and long-term effects of demographic change on economic developments in Brandenburg. First, the status quo from the previous transformation is presented. This revolves around the development of productivity as the central factor for the competitive capabilities of the Brandenburg economy. Here the special structural problems of the state are explained, namely those that have prevented Brandenberg catching up more quickly with the Old Federal States. The economic strategies with which the State Government has attempted to overcome impediments to development are the subject of the following section. The support of growth poles and individual branches is discussed critically. Next, the main elements of demographic change, namely the aging and shrinkage of the working population as well as the drop in the size of the population of Brandenburg as a whole, are looked at in more detail. What must be stressed is that, in Brandenburg as elsewhere, demographic change displays regional differences and these mean that regional disparities which already exist are amplified, especially between the area around Berlin - the closely interwoven area - and the regions further away from Berlin - the outer development area. The economic effects of the demographic development - on the one hand current participation in gainful employment and on the other the increased participation in gainful employment of elder persons - are then discussed. What becomes apparent is that the drop in labour supply could be considerably lessened into the next decade by a better use of the potential offered by elder persons. However, this would put additional demands on maintaining the productivity of persons in gainful employment. The article finishes by discussing the central economic and labour market policy challenges against the background of the specific situation in Brandenburg." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Bogai, D. & Hirschenauer, F. (2011): Demografischer Wandel und wirtschaftliche Leistungsfähigkeit der Regionen Brandenburgs. In: Bundesinstitut für Bau-, Stadt- und Raumforschung (Hrsg.) (2011): Demografische Spuren des ostdeutschen Transformationsprozesses : 20 Jahre deutsche Einheit (BBSR-Online-Publikation, 2011/03), p. 39-50.