Forecast 2011/2012: Uncertain times for the German labour market

Abstract

"After economic expectations indicators declined sharply in summer, Germany┐s business cycle development is about to cool down. We expect real gdp to grow by only 1 percent in 2012. Furthermore, the positive effects resulting from structural improvements after the labour market reforms and wage moderations might fade out. As a consequence, an assumed gdp growth by 1 percent will not induce as much employment as it would have done during the past few years. Employment will only increase by 170.000 persons up to 41.24 mio. Unemployment will decline by 50.000 persons down to 2.92 mio. Both figures are mainly due to a statistical carry-over effect at the beginning of the year. At the moment, uncertainty about the future economic development is immense. If the risks stemming from the world economy or the European monetary system realized, gdp might even turn into a slight recession. Even then unemployment would probably not exceed 3 mio." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Fuchs, J., Hummel, M., Hutter, C., Klinger, S., Spitznagel, E., Wanger, S., Weber, E. & Zika, G. (2011): Prognose 2011/2012: Schwerere Zeiten für den Arbeitsmarkt. (IAB-Kurzbericht 19/2011), Nürnberg, 12 p.