Labour supply up to 2050: Shrinking and ageing labour force is inevitable

Abstract

"The labour market in Germany will undergo a dramatic change due to the demographic development. Solely for demographic reasons the labour force would decrease by 18 million workers between 2008 and 2050. However an upward shift in the labour participation rates of women and older age groups in conjunction with migration will dampen the demographic effect. In case of an average net migration of 100.000 persons per year the reduction of the labour force is projected to be 12 million until 2050.<br> Moreover the age structure reveals dramatic shifts. Whereas the number of younger and middle aged workers will be lowered even more than the total labour force, the ageing of the baby boom generation will boost the number of older workers. All in all a shortage of qualified workers in the near future seems to become more likely than ever." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Fuchs, J., Söhnlein, D. & Weber, B. (2011): Projektion des Arbeitskräfteangebots bis 2050: Rückgang und Alterung sind nicht mehr aufzuhalten. (IAB-Kurzbericht 16/2011), Nürnberg, 8 p.