QuBe-Bevölkerungsprojektion für Deutschlands Regionen 2025 - 2070

Abstract

"As part of the long-term qualification and occupation projections (www.QuBe-Projekt.de), the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) has developed a new population projection for the long-term development of Germany´s 400 districts and district-free cities, the 16 federal states and 34 labour market regions up to 2070. A key distinguishing feature of this population projection, which sets it apart from other projections, is its differentiation between people with and without German citizenship. This allows to take into account substantial differences in fertility rates and migration behaviour. The new population projection illustrates that Germany´s long-term population development is shaped by fundamental demographic trends: a substantial population decline by 5,9% by 2045 and 10,7% by 2070 (compared with 2024). This development is driven by an ageing population, further increases in life expectancy, and low birth rates. Combined with declining migration, these factors have a major influence on demographic development and lead to a substantial shift in the age structure. At the district level, the largest percentage decline by 2070 is expected in the district of Suhl (southern Thuringia), at 38,1%. Among the ten fastest-growing districts (measured in percentage terms), none is located in eastern Germany, while the ten districts expected to experience the largest declines are all located in eastern Germany. With the exception of Leipzig, the areas around Schwerin, and Berlin, there are no districts in the eastern German states expected to record substantial population growth. However, when considering absolute population figures, the clear East-West divide is no longer apparent. In particular, western German districts and the metropolitan areas of Munich and Berlin have experienced substantial population growth in recent years due to migration. If the projected decline in the net migration continues, many districts in western Germany will also experience population decline. The working age population (aged 15 to 67) is expected to decline in most districts. In 68% of districts, this age group is projected to decrease by more than 10% by 2045, and in 81% of districts by 2070. The only districts expected to gain population in this age group are predominantly urban areas or rural regions with a degree of urbanisation. The development of the net migration is also clearly reflected at the level of the federal states. With the exception of the city-state of Hamburg (1,3%), all federal states are expected to lose population. Thuringia is projected to be affected most severely, with a decline of 15,2% by 2045 and 24,9% by 2070. As at the district level, population decline is particularly pronounced in the eastern federal states, where demographic change has been progressing for many years. This is attributed to the ageing population, low birth rates, and insufficient immigration from abroad. At the same time, western German states, which have so far benefited from migration from both within and outside Europe, will also be substantially affected by declining migration and are expected to lose population, albeit to a lesser extent. The working-age population (aged 15 to 67), which is particularly relevant for the labour market, is also expected to decline substantially in all federal states (Hamburg: -3,2% by 2045 and -8,3% by 2070; Thuringia: -19,6% by 2045 and -26,4% by 2070). At the level of labour market regions, developments in the migration balance follow a pattern similar to that observed at the district and federal-state levels. The Erfurt labour market region is projected to experience the largest decline, at 14,7% by 2045 (-24,1% by 2070). Overall, eastern German labour market regions are more strongly affected by declining migration and are expected to lose population. The working-age population (aged 15 to 67) is projected to decline substantially in all labour market regions (Hamburg labour market region: -7,2% by 2045 and -9,8% by 2070; Erfurt labour market region: -19,0% by 2045 and -25,7% by 2070). The decline in this age group will have a substantial impact on labour supply. In regions where the working-age population declines faster than the total population, labour shortages could emerge or existing shortages could intensify. In addition to population ageing, the trend towards urbanisation is reinforcing population decline in rural areas. While larger cities as well as university locations, such as Heidelberg and Bamberg, benefit from population growth, rural regions in eastern Germany are experiencing declines of more than 30%. The strong influx into the metropolitan areas of Hamburg, Berlin, and Munich is not expected to continue at the same pace. Western German districts and metropolitan areas, in particular, have gained population in recent years as a result of international migration. Overall, the share of the population without German citizenship is projected to decline by 2045 and 2070 as a result of a lower net migration. A clear East-West divide will nevertheless remain: districts with high shares of foreign nationals are concentrated in western Germany, while the corresponding shares in eastern Germany remain below average." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Zika, G., Muliavka, V., Schneemann, C. & Schneider, M. (2026): QuBe-Bevölkerungsprojektion für Deutschlands Regionen 2025 - 2070. (IAB-Forschungsbericht 11/2026), Nürnberg, 47 p. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FB2611